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Rokycany vs Jiskra Domažlice II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Rokycany
Rokycany
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jiskra Domažlice II
Jiskra Domažlice II
8/10/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 1Stadion pod Husovými sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rokycany53%
×Draw21%
Jiskra Domažlice II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rokycany
2.08
Jiskra Domažlice II
1.38

Rokycany creates 51% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 60 away

creates per match

Rokycany
1.61
Jiskra Domažlice II
1.58

allows per match

Rokycany
1.17
Jiskra Domažlice II
2.55

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par
Jiskra Domažlice II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Jiskra Domažlice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw
75%
Rokycany or Jiskra Domažlice II
79%
Draw or Jiskra Domažlice II
47%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+
32%
Jiskra Domažlice II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals
87%
Rokycany 2+ goals
61%
Rokycany 3+ goals
34%
Jiskra Domažlice II 1+ goals
75%
Jiskra Domažlice II 2+ goals
40%
Jiskra Domažlice II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)
68%
Jiskra Domažlice II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Jiskra Domažlice II away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.55 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Jiskra Domažlice II defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jiskra Domažlice II attack 1.58 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rokycany scores more
53%
level
21%
Jiskra Domažlice II scores more
25%

Rokycany at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rokycany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rokycany vs Jiskra Domažlice II

Rokycany beat Jiskra Domažlice II 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion pod Husovými sady in Rokycany.