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Rokycany vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Rokycany
Rokycany
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
6/18/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 30Stadion pod Husovými sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rokycany58%
×Draw21%
Jindřichův Hradec21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rokycany
2.06
Jindřichův Hradec
1.15

Rokycany creates 79% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 56 away

creates per match

Rokycany
1.61
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Rokycany
1.17
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw
79%
Rokycany or Jindřichův Hradec
79%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
42%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+
35%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals
87%
Rokycany 2+ goals
61%
Rokycany 3+ goals
34%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
68%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
32%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)
74%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rokycany scores more
58%
level
21%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
21%

Rokycany at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rokycany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Rokycany 2–0 Jindřichův Hradec

Rokycany beat Jindřichův Hradec 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion pod Husovými sady in Rokycany.