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Rokycany vs Hořovicko — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Rokycany
Rokycany
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hořovicko
Hořovicko
3/16/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 18Stadion pod Husovými sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Rokycany50%
×Draw23%
Hořovicko26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rokycany
1.77
Hořovicko
1.22

Rokycany creates 45% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 86 away

creates per match

Rokycany
1.61
Hořovicko
1.27

allows per match

Rokycany
1.17
Hořovicko
1.93

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par
Hořovicko+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Hořovicko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw
74%
Rokycany or Hořovicko
77%
Draw or Hořovicko
50%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+
27%
Hořovicko wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals
83%
Rokycany 2+ goals
53%
Rokycany 3+ goals
26%
Hořovicko 1+ goals
70%
Hořovicko 2+ goals
34%
Hořovicko 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)
66%
Hořovicko (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Hořovicko away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Hořovicko defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hořovicko attack 1.27 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rokycany scores more
50%
level
23%
Hořovicko scores more
26%

Rokycany at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rokycany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Rokycany 4–1 Hořovicko

Rokycany beat Hořovicko 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion pod Husovými sady in Rokycany.