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Rokycany vs Horní Bříza — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Rokycany
Rokycany
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
3/11/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 17Stadion pod Husovými sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rokycany68%
×Draw19%
Horní Bříza13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rokycany
2.10
Horní Bříza
0.78

Rokycany creates 169% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rokycany
1.61
Horní Bříza
0.40

allows per match

Rokycany
1.17
Horní Bříza
2.60

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par
Horní Bříza+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Horní Bříza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw
87%
Rokycany or Horní Bříza
81%
Draw or Horní Bříza
32%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+
43%
Horní Bříza wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals
88%
Rokycany 2+ goals
62%
Rokycany 3+ goals
35%
Horní Bříza 1+ goals
54%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
18%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)
84%
Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Horní Bříza away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Horní Bříza defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.10

Horní Bříza attack 0.40 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Rokycany scores more
68%
level
19%
Horní Bříza scores more
13%

Rokycany at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Rokycany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rokycany vs Horní Bříza

Rokycany and Horní Bříza drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion pod Husovými sady in Rokycany.