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Rokycany vs Český lev - Union Beroun — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Rokycany
Rokycany
FT
0 – 0
Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
10/10/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 8Stadion pod Husovými sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Rokycany67%
×Draw18%
Český lev - Union Beroun14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rokycany
2.31
Český lev - Union Beroun
0.96

Rokycany creates 141% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 25 away

creates per match

Rokycany
1.61
Český lev - Union Beroun
0.76

allows per match

Rokycany
1.17
Český lev - Union Beroun
3.00

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par
Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Český lev - Union Beroun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw
86%
Rokycany or Český lev - Union Beroun
82%
Draw or Český lev - Union Beroun
33%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+
44%
Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals
90%
Rokycany 2+ goals
67%
Rokycany 3+ goals
40%
Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
62%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
25%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)
82%
Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Český lev - Union Beroun away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 0.76 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Rokycany scores more
67%
level
18%
Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
14%

Rokycany at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rokycany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Rokycany 0–0 Český lev - Union Beroun

Rokycany and Český lev - Union Beroun drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion pod Husovými sady in Rokycany.