Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rokycany vs Baník Sokolov — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Rokycany
Rokycany
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baník Sokolov
Baník Sokolov
6/5/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 29Stadion pod Husovými sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rokycany37%
×Draw24%
Baník Sokolov39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rokycany
1.54
Baník Sokolov
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rokycany
1.61
Baník Sokolov
2.00

allows per match

Rokycany
1.17
Baník Sokolov
1.47

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par
Baník Sokolov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Baník Sokolov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw
61%
Rokycany or Baník Sokolov
76%
Draw or Baník Sokolov
63%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+
18%
Baník Sokolov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals
79%
Rokycany 2+ goals
45%
Rokycany 3+ goals
20%
Baník Sokolov 1+ goals
79%
Baník Sokolov 2+ goals
47%
Baník Sokolov 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)
49%
Baník Sokolov (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Baník Sokolov away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Baník Sokolov defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Baník Sokolov attack 2.00 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rokycany scores more
37%
level
24%
Baník Sokolov scores more
39%

Baník Sokolov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baník Sokolov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rokycany 1 – 1 Baník Sokolov

Rokycany and Baník Sokolov drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on June 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion pod Husovými sady in Rokycany.