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Roi United vs Rops — Suomen Cup 2018

Roi United
Roi United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Rops
Rops
4/9/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundRovaniemen Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Roi United31%
×Draw23%
Rops46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roi United
1.43
Rops
1.80

Rops creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Roi United
1.33
Rops
1.27

allows per match

Roi United
2.33
Rops
1.53

finishing

Roi United+0.00on par
Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roi United ↓

Rops →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Roi United or draw
54%
Roi United or Rops
77%
Draw or Rops
69%

Winning margin

Roi United wins by 2+
14%
Rops wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Roi United 1+ goals
76%
Roi United 2+ goals
42%
Roi United 3+ goals
17%
Rops 1+ goals
83%
Rops 2+ goals
54%
Rops 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Roi United (draw refunded)
40%
Rops (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roi United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Rops away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roi United attack 1.33 + Rops defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rops attack 1.27 + Roi United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Roi United scores more
31%
level
23%
Rops scores more
46%

Rops at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rops will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Roi United 1–3 Rops

Rops beat Roi United 3-1 in Suomen Cup on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä in Rovaniemi.