Roi Et 0–3 Uthai Thani: Result & Stats | League Cup

Roi Et

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Uthai Thani

2/26/2025

League Cup · Round of 16Pride Arena Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Roi Et24%

×Draw21%

Uthai Thani55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roi EtExpected goals in this matchUthai Thani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

2.14

Roi Et

1.34

Uthai Thani

2.14

Uthai Thani creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.80

creates per match

2.88

1.40

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Roi Et

1.80

Uthai Thani

2.88

allows per match

Roi Et

1.40

Uthai Thani

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roi Et+0.00on par

Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roi Et ↓

Uthai Thani →

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Roi Et or draw

45%

Roi Et or Uthai Thani

79%

Draw or Uthai Thani

76%

Winning margin

Roi Et wins by 2+

10%

Uthai Thani wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Roi Et 1+ goals

74%

Roi Et 2+ goals

39%

Roi Et 3+ goals

15%

Uthai Thani 1+ goals

88%

Uthai Thani 2+ goals

63%

Uthai Thani 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Roi Et (draw refunded)

30%

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Roi Et at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Uthai Thani away — creates 2.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Roi Et attack 1.80 + Uthai Thani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.34

Uthai Thani attack 2.88 + Roi Et defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Roi Et scores more

24%

level

21%

Uthai Thani scores more

55%

Uthai Thani at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff