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Roi Et vs Surin Sugar — League Cup 2021

Roi Et
Roi Et
FT
7 – 0
Surin Sugar
Surin Sugar
10/2/2024League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsMaha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Roi Et77%
×Draw13%
Surin Sugar10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roi Et
3.15
Surin Sugar
1.07

Roi Et creates 194% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Roi Et
1.80
Surin Sugar
0.75

allows per match

Roi Et
1.40
Surin Sugar
4.50

finishing

Roi Et+0.00on par
Surin Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roi Et ↓

Surin Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Roi Et or draw
90%
Roi Et or Surin Sugar
87%
Draw or Surin Sugar
23%

Winning margin

Roi Et wins by 2+
58%
Surin Sugar wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Roi Et 1+ goals
96%
Roi Et 2+ goals
81%
Roi Et 3+ goals
59%
Surin Sugar 1+ goals
66%
Surin Sugar 2+ goals
29%
Surin Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Roi Et (draw refunded)
89%
Surin Sugar (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roi Et at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Surin Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roi Et attack 1.80 + Surin Sugar defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.15

Surin Sugar attack 0.75 + Roi Et defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Roi Et scores more
77%
level
13%
Surin Sugar scores more
10%

Roi Et at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Roi Et will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Roi Et 7–0 Surin Sugar

Roi Et beat Surin Sugar 7-0 in League Cup on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at Maha Sarakham Provincial Stadium in Maha Sarakham.