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Roi Et vs Sukhothai FC — League Cup 2021

Roi Et
Roi Et
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
10/30/2024League CupLeague Cup · 1st RoundRoi Et Provincial Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Roi Et46%
×Draw26%
Sukhothai FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roi Et
1.50
Sukhothai FC
1.10

Roi Et creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Roi Et
1.80
Sukhothai FC
0.80

allows per match

Roi Et
1.40
Sukhothai FC
1.20

finishing

Roi Et+0.00on par
Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roi Et ↓

Sukhothai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Roi Et or draw
72%
Roi Et or Sukhothai FC
74%
Draw or Sukhothai FC
54%

Winning margin

Roi Et wins by 2+
23%
Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Roi Et 1+ goals
78%
Roi Et 2+ goals
44%
Roi Et 3+ goals
19%
Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
67%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
30%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Roi Et (draw refunded)
63%
Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roi Et at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roi Et attack 1.80 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sukhothai FC attack 0.80 + Roi Et defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Roi Et scores more
46%
level
26%
Sukhothai FC scores more
28%

Roi Et at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Roi Et will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roi Et vs Sukhothai FC

Roi Et beat Sukhothai FC 1-0 in League Cup on October 30, 2024.

The match was played at Roi Et Provincial Sport Stadium in Roi Et.