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Roi Et vs Royal Thai Fleet — FA Cup 2018

Roi Et
Roi Et
FT
2 – 1
Royal Thai Fleet
Royal Thai Fleet
9/29/2021FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying RoundRoi Et Provincial Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Roi Et60%
×Draw20%
Royal Thai Fleet20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roi Et
2.20
Royal Thai Fleet
1.20

Roi Et creates 83% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Roi Et
1.80
Royal Thai Fleet
1.00

allows per match

Roi Et
1.40
Royal Thai Fleet
2.60

finishing

Roi Et+0.00on par
Royal Thai Fleet+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roi Et ↓

Royal Thai Fleet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Roi Et or draw
80%
Roi Et or Royal Thai Fleet
80%
Draw or Royal Thai Fleet
40%

Winning margin

Roi Et wins by 2+
37%
Royal Thai Fleet wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Roi Et 1+ goals
89%
Roi Et 2+ goals
64%
Roi Et 3+ goals
37%
Royal Thai Fleet 1+ goals
70%
Royal Thai Fleet 2+ goals
34%
Royal Thai Fleet 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Roi Et (draw refunded)
75%
Royal Thai Fleet (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roi Et at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Royal Thai Fleet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roi Et attack 1.80 + Royal Thai Fleet defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Royal Thai Fleet attack 1.00 + Roi Et defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Roi Et scores more
60%
level
20%
Royal Thai Fleet scores more
20%

Roi Et at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Roi Et will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roi Et vs Royal Thai Fleet

Roi Et beat Royal Thai Fleet 2-1 in FA Cup on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Roi Et Provincial Sport Stadium in Roi Et.