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Roi Et vs Muang Loei United — League Cup 2021

Roi Et
Roi Et
FT
1 – 0
Muang Loei United
Muang Loei United
9/7/2024League CupLeague Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundMaha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Roi Et37%
×Draw26%
Muang Loei United37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roi Et
1.30
Muang Loei United
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Roi Et
1.80
Muang Loei United
1.20

allows per match

Roi Et
1.40
Muang Loei United
0.80

finishing

Roi Et+0.00on par
Muang Loei United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roi Et ↓

Muang Loei United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Roi Et or draw
63%
Roi Et or Muang Loei United
74%
Draw or Muang Loei United
63%

Winning margin

Roi Et wins by 2+
16%
Muang Loei United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Roi Et 1+ goals
73%
Roi Et 2+ goals
37%
Roi Et 3+ goals
14%
Muang Loei United 1+ goals
73%
Muang Loei United 2+ goals
37%
Muang Loei United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Roi Et (draw refunded)
50%
Muang Loei United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roi Et at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Muang Loei United away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roi Et attack 1.80 + Muang Loei United defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.30

Muang Loei United attack 1.20 + Roi Et defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Roi Et scores more
37%
level
26%
Muang Loei United scores more
37%

Roi Et at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Roi Et will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Roi Et 1–0 Muang Loei United

Roi Et beat Muang Loei United 1-0 in League Cup on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Maha Sarakham Provincial Stadium in Maha Sarakham.