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Roi Et vs Kanchanaburi — FA Cup 2018

Roi Et
Roi Et
AET
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kanchanaburi
Kanchanaburi
10/27/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundRoi Et Provincial Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Roi Et46%
×Draw24%
Kanchanaburi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roi Et
1.73
Kanchanaburi
1.36

Roi Et creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Roi Et
1.80
Kanchanaburi
1.33

allows per match

Roi Et
1.40
Kanchanaburi
1.67

finishing

Roi Et+0.00on par
Kanchanaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roi Et ↓

Kanchanaburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Roi Et or draw
70%
Roi Et or Kanchanaburi
76%
Draw or Kanchanaburi
54%

Winning margin

Roi Et wins by 2+
25%
Kanchanaburi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Roi Et 1+ goals
82%
Roi Et 2+ goals
52%
Roi Et 3+ goals
25%
Kanchanaburi 1+ goals
74%
Kanchanaburi 2+ goals
39%
Kanchanaburi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Roi Et (draw refunded)
60%
Kanchanaburi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roi Et at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Kanchanaburi away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roi Et attack 1.80 + Kanchanaburi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kanchanaburi attack 1.33 + Roi Et defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Roi Et scores more
46%
level
24%
Kanchanaburi scores more
30%

Roi Et at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Roi Et will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Roi Et 1–2 Kanchanaburi

Kanchanaburi beat Roi Et 2-1 in FA Cup on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Roi Et Provincial Sport Stadium in Roi Et.