Roi Et 0–4 Buriram United: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Roi Et

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Buriram United

11/19/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundPride Arena Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Roi Et29%

×Draw21%

Buriram United49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roi EtExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

2.09

Roi Et

1.58

Buriram United

2.09

Buriram United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

1.80

creates per match

2.79

1.40

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Roi Et

1.80

Buriram United

2.79

allows per match

Roi Et

1.40

Buriram United

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roi Et+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roi Et ↓

Buriram United →

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Roi Et or draw

51%

Roi Et or Buriram United

79%

Draw or Buriram United

71%

Winning margin

Roi Et wins by 2+

14%

Buriram United wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Roi Et 1+ goals

79%

Roi Et 2+ goals

47%

Roi Et 3+ goals

21%

Buriram United 1+ goals

88%

Buriram United 2+ goals

62%

Buriram United 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Roi Et (draw refunded)

37%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Roi Et at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Buriram United away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Roi Et attack 1.80 + Buriram United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.58

Buriram United attack 2.79 + Roi Et defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Roi Et scores more

29%

level

21%

Buriram United scores more

49%

Buriram United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff