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Rohožník vs Slovan Bratislava II — 2. liga 2019

Rohožník
Rohožník
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Slovan Bratislava II
Slovan Bratislava II
4/30/20222. liga2. liga · Round 27Štadión FC Rohožník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rohožník39%
×Draw24%
Slovan Bratislava II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rohožník
1.54
Slovan Bratislava II
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 95 away

creates per match

Rohožník
1.00
Slovan Bratislava II
1.03

allows per match

Rohožník
1.93
Slovan Bratislava II
2.08

finishing

Rohožník+0.00on par
Slovan Bratislava II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rohožník ↓

Slovan Bratislava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rohožník or draw
63%
Rohožník or Slovan Bratislava II
76%
Draw or Slovan Bratislava II
61%

Winning margin

Rohožník wins by 2+
19%
Slovan Bratislava II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rohožník 1+ goals
79%
Rohožník 2+ goals
45%
Rohožník 3+ goals
20%
Slovan Bratislava II 1+ goals
77%
Slovan Bratislava II 2+ goals
43%
Slovan Bratislava II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rohožník (draw refunded)
52%
Slovan Bratislava II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rohožník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Slovan Bratislava II away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.08 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rohožník attack 1.00 + Slovan Bratislava II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Slovan Bratislava II attack 1.03 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rohožník scores more
39%
level
24%
Slovan Bratislava II scores more
37%

Rohožník at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rohožník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Rohožník 0–6 Slovan Bratislava II

Slovan Bratislava II beat Rohožník 6-0 in 2. liga on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión FC Rohožník in Rohožník.