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Rohožník vs Šamorín — 2. liga 2019

Rohožník
Rohožník
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Šamorín
Šamorín
3/6/20222. liga2. liga · Round 19Štadión FC Rohožník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rohožník35%
×Draw24%
Šamorín40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rohožník
1.43
Šamorín
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

creates per match

Rohožník
1.00
Šamorín
1.17

allows per match

Rohožník
1.93
Šamorín
1.85

finishing

Rohožník+0.00on par
Šamorín+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rohožník ↓

Šamorín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rohožník or draw
60%
Rohožník or Šamorín
76%
Draw or Šamorín
65%

Winning margin

Rohožník wins by 2+
16%
Šamorín wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Rohožník 1+ goals
76%
Rohožník 2+ goals
42%
Rohožník 3+ goals
17%
Šamorín 1+ goals
79%
Šamorín 2+ goals
46%
Šamorín 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rohožník (draw refunded)
47%
Šamorín (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rohožník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Šamorín away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.85 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rohožník attack 1.00 + Šamorín defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Šamorín attack 1.17 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rohožník scores more
35%
level
24%
Šamorín scores more
40%

Šamorín at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Šamorín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rohožník vs Šamorín

Šamorín beat Rohožník 1-0 in 2. liga on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión FC Rohožník in Rohožník.