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ROHDA Raalte vs GVV Unitas — Derde Divisie - Relegation Round 2022

ROHDA Raalte
ROHDA Raalteadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
6/15/2024Derde Divisie - Relegation RoundDerde Divisie - Relegation Round · Play-offs - FinalSportpark Zuid DVS '33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ROHDA Raalte55%
×Draw23%
GVV Unitas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ROHDA Raalte
1.88
GVV Unitas
1.13

ROHDA Raalte creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

ROHDA Raalte
1.75
GVV Unitas
1.00

allows per match

ROHDA Raalte
1.25
GVV Unitas
2.00

finishing

ROHDA Raalte+0.00on par
GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ROHDA Raalte ↓

GVV Unitas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ROHDA Raalte or draw
77%
ROHDA Raalte or GVV Unitas
77%
Draw or GVV Unitas
45%

Winning margin

ROHDA Raalte wins by 2+
31%
GVV Unitas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ROHDA Raalte 1+ goals
85%
ROHDA Raalte 2+ goals
56%
ROHDA Raalte 3+ goals
29%
GVV Unitas 1+ goals
68%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
31%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ROHDA Raalte (draw refunded)
71%
GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ROHDA Raalte at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ROHDA Raalte attack 1.75 + GVV Unitas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

GVV Unitas attack 1.00 + ROHDA Raalte defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ROHDA Raalte scores more
55%
level
23%
GVV Unitas scores more
23%

ROHDA Raalte at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ROHDA Raalte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ROHDA Raalte vs GVV Unitas

ROHDA Raalte beat GVV Unitas 4-0 in Derde Divisie - Relegation Round on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Zuid DVS '33 in Ermelo.