ROHDA Raalte 2–1 Achilles Veen: Result & Stats

ROHDA Raalte

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Achilles Veen

6/12/2024

Derde Divisie - Relegation Round · Play-offs - 1st RoundSportpark Tijenraan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ROHDA Raalte39%

×Draw26%

Achilles Veen35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ROHDA RaalteExpected goals in this matchAchilles Veen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.29

ROHDA Raalte

1.38

Achilles Veen

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

1.33

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

ROHDA Raalte

1.75

Achilles Veen

1.33

allows per match

ROHDA Raalte

1.25

Achilles Veen

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ROHDA Raalte+0.00on par

Achilles Veen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ROHDA Raalte ↓

Achilles Veen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

ROHDA Raalte or draw

65%

ROHDA Raalte or Achilles Veen

74%

Draw or Achilles Veen

61%

Winning margin

ROHDA Raalte wins by 2+

18%

Achilles Veen wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ROHDA Raalte 1+ goals

75%

ROHDA Raalte 2+ goals

40%

ROHDA Raalte 3+ goals

16%

Achilles Veen 1+ goals

72%

Achilles Veen 2+ goals

37%

Achilles Veen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ROHDA Raalte (draw refunded)

53%

Achilles Veen (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ROHDA Raalte at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Achilles Veen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ROHDA Raalte attack 1.75 + Achilles Veen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Achilles Veen attack 1.33 + ROHDA Raalte defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ROHDA Raalte scores more

39%

level

26%

Achilles Veen scores more

35%

ROHDA Raalte at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ROHDA Raalte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff