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Rogba Tataouine vs Stade Gabesien — Ligue 2 2020

Rogba Tataouine
Rogba Tataouine
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
S. Ounelli 81'
A. Bouchniba 61'
H. Marzougui 59'
B. Rhouma 90+5'
A. Khaoui 24'
3/15/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade Néjib Khattab

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rogba Tataouine35%
×Draw29%
Stade Gabesien36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogba Tataouine
1.09
Stade Gabesien
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 60 away

creates per match

Rogba Tataouine
1.06
Stade Gabesien
0.73

allows per match

Rogba Tataouine
1.50
Stade Gabesien
1.12

finishing

Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par
Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogba Tataouine ↓

Stade Gabesien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rogba Tataouine or draw
64%
Rogba Tataouine or Stade Gabesien
71%
Draw or Stade Gabesien
65%

Winning margin

Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+
14%
Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals
66%
Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals
30%
Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals
10%
Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
67%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
30%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)
49%
Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogba Tataouine at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogba Tataouine attack 1.06 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rogba Tataouine scores more
35%
level
29%
Stade Gabesien scores more
36%

Stade Gabesien at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
A. Khaoui
55'
Y. Dinari
59'
H. Marzougui
61'
A. Bouchniba
81'
S. Ounelli
90+5'
B. Rhouma

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rogba Tataouine vs Stade Gabesien

Rogba Tataouine beat Stade Gabesien 3-1 in Ligue 2 on March 15, 2025.

Goals: A. Khaoui (24'), H. Marzougui (59'), A. Bouchniba (61'), S. Ounelli (81'), B. Rhouma (90+5').

The match was played at Stade Néjib Khattab in Tataouine.