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Rogba Tataouine vs Moknine — Ligue 2 2020

Rogba Tataouine
Rogba Tataouine
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Moknine
Moknine
11/5/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Néjib Khattab

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rogba Tataouine39%
×Draw27%
Moknine34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogba Tataouine
1.31
Moknine
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 49 away

creates per match

Rogba Tataouine
1.06
Moknine
0.90

allows per match

Rogba Tataouine
1.50
Moknine
1.57

finishing

Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par
Moknine+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogba Tataouine ↓

Moknine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rogba Tataouine or draw
66%
Rogba Tataouine or Moknine
73%
Draw or Moknine
61%

Winning margin

Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+
18%
Moknine wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals
73%
Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals
38%
Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals
14%
Moknine 1+ goals
70%
Moknine 2+ goals
34%
Moknine 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)
54%
Moknine (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogba Tataouine at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

Moknine away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogba Tataouine attack 1.06 + Moknine defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Moknine attack 0.90 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rogba Tataouine scores more
39%
level
27%
Moknine scores more
34%

Rogba Tataouine at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rogba Tataouine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rogba Tataouine vs Moknine

Moknine beat Rogba Tataouine 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Néjib Khattab in Tataouine.