Rogba Tataouine 1–1 Kerkennah: Result & Stats

Rogba Tataouine

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kerkennah

12/21/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Néjib Khattab

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rogba Tataouine31%

×Draw28%

Kerkennah41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rogba TataouineExpected goals in this matchKerkennah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.29

Rogba Tataouine

1.07

Kerkennah

1.29

Kerkennah creates 21% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 38 away

1.06

creates per match

1.08

1.50

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Rogba Tataouine

1.06

Kerkennah

1.08

allows per match

Rogba Tataouine

1.50

Kerkennah

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par

Kerkennah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogba Tataouine ↓

Kerkennah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rogba Tataouine or draw

59%

Rogba Tataouine or Kerkennah

72%

Draw or Kerkennah

69%

Winning margin

Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+

12%

Kerkennah wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals

66%

Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals

29%

Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals

9%

Kerkennah 1+ goals

72%

Kerkennah 2+ goals

37%

Kerkennah 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)

43%

Kerkennah (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogba Tataouine at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

Kerkennah away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogba Tataouine attack 1.06 + Kerkennah defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Kerkennah attack 1.08 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rogba Tataouine scores more

31%

level

28%

Kerkennah scores more

41%

Kerkennah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kerkennah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff