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Rogba Tataouine vs Baath Bouhajla — Ligue 2 2020

Rogba Tataouine
Rogba Tataouine
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baath Bouhajla
Baath Bouhajla
11/3/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade Néjib Khattab

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rogba Tataouine35%
×Draw30%
Baath Bouhajla35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogba Tataouine
1.07
Baath Bouhajla
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rogba Tataouine
1.06
Baath Bouhajla
0.62

allows per match

Rogba Tataouine
1.50
Baath Bouhajla
1.08

finishing

Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par
Baath Bouhajla+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogba Tataouine ↓

Baath Bouhajla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rogba Tataouine or draw
65%
Rogba Tataouine or Baath Bouhajla
70%
Draw or Baath Bouhajla
65%

Winning margin

Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+
14%
Baath Bouhajla wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals
66%
Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals
29%
Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals
9%
Baath Bouhajla 1+ goals
65%
Baath Bouhajla 2+ goals
29%
Baath Bouhajla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)
50%
Baath Bouhajla (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogba Tataouine at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

Baath Bouhajla away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogba Tataouine attack 1.06 + Baath Bouhajla defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Baath Bouhajla attack 0.62 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Rogba Tataouine scores more
35%
level
30%
Baath Bouhajla scores more
35%

Rogba Tataouine at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Rogba Tataouine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Rogba Tataouine 0–0 Baath Bouhajla

Rogba Tataouine and Baath Bouhajla drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Néjib Khattab in Tataouine.