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Rogba Tataouine vs AS Marsa — Ligue 2 2020

Rogba Tataouine
Rogba Tataouine
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
AS Marsa
AS Marsa
I. Troudi 14'
N. Chamsi 87'
M. Nouioui 53', 22' (pen)
3/5/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Néjib Khattab

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Rogba Tataouine24%
×Draw27%
AS Marsa49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogba Tataouine
0.91
AS Marsa
1.44

AS Marsa creates 58% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 24 away

creates per match

Rogba Tataouine
1.06
AS Marsa
1.38

allows per match

Rogba Tataouine
1.50
AS Marsa
0.75

finishing

Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par
AS Marsa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogba Tataouine ↓

AS Marsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rogba Tataouine or draw
51%
Rogba Tataouine or AS Marsa
73%
Draw or AS Marsa
76%

Winning margin

Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+
8%
AS Marsa wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals
60%
Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals
23%
Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals
6%
AS Marsa 1+ goals
76%
AS Marsa 2+ goals
42%
AS Marsa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)
33%
AS Marsa (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogba Tataouine at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

AS Marsa away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogba Tataouine attack 1.06 + AS Marsa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.91

AS Marsa attack 1.38 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rogba Tataouine scores more
24%
level
27%
AS Marsa scores more
49%

AS Marsa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
I. Troudi
22'
M. NouiouiPenalty
53'
M. Nouioui
87'
N. Chamsi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Rogba Tataouine 1–3 AS Marsa

AS Marsa beat Rogba Tataouine 3-1 in Ligue 2 on March 5, 2023.

Goals: I. Troudi (14'), M. Nouioui (22' pen, 53'), N. Chamsi (87').

The match was played at Stade Néjib Khattab in Tataouine.