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Rogaška vs Olimpija Ljubljana — 1. SNL 2026

Rogaška
Rogaška
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
10/1/20231. SNL1. SNL · Round 11Športni center Rogaška Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rogaška27%
×Draw26%
Olimpija Ljubljana47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogaška
1.08
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.50

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 39% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 124 away

creates per match

Rogaška
1.06
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.49

allows per match

Rogaška
1.50
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.10

finishing

Rogaška+0.00on par
Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogaška ↓

Olimpija Ljubljana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rogaška or draw
53%
Rogaška or Olimpija Ljubljana
74%
Draw or Olimpija Ljubljana
73%

Winning margin

Rogaška wins by 2+
10%
Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rogaška 1+ goals
66%
Rogaška 2+ goals
29%
Rogaška 3+ goals
10%
Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals
78%
Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
44%
Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rogaška (draw refunded)
37%
Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogaška at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Olimpija Ljubljana away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogaška attack 1.06 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.49 + Rogaška defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rogaška scores more
27%
level
26%
Olimpija Ljubljana scores more
47%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rogaška vs Olimpija Ljubljana

Olimpija Ljubljana beat Rogaška 2-0 in 1. SNL on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Športni center Rogaška Slatina in Rogaška Slatina.