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Rogaška vs Maribor — 1. SNL 2026

Rogaška
Rogaška
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maribor
Maribor
2/25/20241. SNL1. SNL · Round 23Športni center Rogaška Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rogaška28%
×Draw26%
Maribor46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogaška
1.13
Maribor
1.52

Maribor creates 35% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 125 away

creates per match

Rogaška
1.06
Maribor
1.53

allows per match

Rogaška
1.50
Maribor
1.19

finishing

Rogaška+0.00on par
Maribor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogaška ↓

Maribor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rogaška or draw
54%
Rogaška or Maribor
74%
Draw or Maribor
72%

Winning margin

Rogaška wins by 2+
11%
Maribor wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rogaška 1+ goals
68%
Rogaška 2+ goals
31%
Rogaška 3+ goals
11%
Maribor 1+ goals
78%
Maribor 2+ goals
45%
Maribor 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rogaška (draw refunded)
38%
Maribor (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogaška at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Maribor away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.19 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogaška attack 1.06 + Maribor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Maribor attack 1.53 + Rogaška defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rogaška scores more
28%
level
26%
Maribor scores more
46%

Maribor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maribor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rogaška vs Maribor

Rogaška and Maribor drew 0-0 in 1. SNL on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Športni center Rogaška Slatina in Rogaška Slatina.