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Rogaška vs Koper — 2. SNL 2019

Rogaška
Rogaška
CANC
15:00
Koper
Koper
5/2/20202. SNL2. SNL · Round 28Športni center Rogaška Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rogaška26%
×Draw24%
Koper50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogaška
1.17
Koper
1.70

Koper creates 45% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 10 away

creates per match

Rogaška
1.63
Koper
2.30

allows per match

Rogaška
1.10
Koper
0.70

finishing

Rogaška+0.00on par
Koper+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogaška ↓

Koper →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rogaška or draw
50%
Rogaška or Koper
76%
Draw or Koper
74%

Winning margin

Rogaška wins by 2+
10%
Koper wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Rogaška 1+ goals
69%
Rogaška 2+ goals
33%
Rogaška 3+ goals
11%
Koper 1+ goals
82%
Koper 2+ goals
51%
Koper 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rogaška (draw refunded)
35%
Koper (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogaška at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

Koper away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogaška attack 1.63 + Koper defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.17

Koper attack 2.30 + Rogaška defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rogaška scores more
26%
level
24%
Koper scores more
50%

Koper at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Koper will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rogaška host Koper

May 2, 2020: Rogaška take on Koper in 2. SNL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rogaška host Koper at Športni center Rogaška Slatina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.