Rogaška 1–4 Gorica: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Rogaška

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Gorica

F. Jauk 50'

B. Osuji 90+3'

L. Colley 77'

L. Volarič 59'

M. Gulič 13'

9/14/2019

2. SNL · Round 8Športni center Rogaška Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Rogaška35%

×Draw26%

Gorica39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RogaškaExpected goals in this matchGorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.38

Rogaška

1.30

Gorica

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 71 away

1.64

creates per match

1.68

1.08

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Rogaška

1.64

Gorica

1.68

allows per match

Rogaška

1.08

Gorica

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rogaška+0.00on par

Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogaška ↓

Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rogaška or draw

61%

Rogaška or Gorica

74%

Draw or Gorica

65%

Winning margin

Rogaška wins by 2+

15%

Gorica wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rogaška 1+ goals

73%

Rogaška 2+ goals

37%

Rogaška 3+ goals

14%

Gorica 1+ goals

75%

Gorica 2+ goals

40%

Gorica 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rogaška (draw refunded)

48%

Gorica (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogaška at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Gorica away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogaška attack 1.64 + Gorica defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.30

Gorica attack 1.68 + Rogaška defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rogaška scores more

35%

level

26%

Gorica scores more

39%

Gorica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Gulič

50'

F. Jauk

59'

L. Volarič

63'

J. Koprivica← L. Štefanac

70'

G. Zorko← H. Muzaferović

77'

L. Colley

78'

A. Torra← D. Mraz

84'

G. Trivunović← L. Volarič

89'

T. Matić← J. Kolenc

90+3'

B. Osuji

Rogaška

Gorica

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Romih

63'▲J. Koprivica←▼L. Štefanac

70'▲G. Zorko←▼H. Muzaferović

78'▲A. Torra←▼D. Mraz

Rogaška substitutes

KoprivicaZorkoTorraHustićStaričKorošecGorza

Manager: B. Lučić

84'▲G. Trivunović←▼L. Volarič

89'▲T. Matić←▼J. Kolenc

Gorica substitutes

TrivunovićMatićHodžićKavčičBičič