Rogaška 1–3 Dravograd: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Rogaška

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dravograd

H. Muzaferović 47'

A. Pešl 90'

N. Pečnik 68'

D. Rogina 8'

10/5/2019

2. SNL · Round 12Športni center Rogaška Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rogaška65%

×Draw19%

Dravograd17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RogaškaExpected goals in this matchDravograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.09

Rogaška

2.32

Dravograd

1.09

Rogaška creates 113% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 10 away

1.64

creates per match

1.10

1.08

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Rogaška

1.64

Dravograd

1.10

allows per match

Rogaška

1.08

Dravograd

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rogaška+0.00on par

Dravograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogaška ↓

Dravograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rogaška or draw

83%

Rogaška or Dravograd

81%

Draw or Dravograd

35%

Winning margin

Rogaška wins by 2+

42%

Dravograd wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rogaška 1+ goals

90%

Rogaška 2+ goals

67%

Rogaška 3+ goals

40%

Dravograd 1+ goals

66%

Dravograd 2+ goals

30%

Dravograd 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rogaška (draw refunded)

80%

Dravograd (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogaška at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Dravograd away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogaška attack 1.64 + Dravograd defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.32

Dravograd attack 1.10 + Rogaška defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rogaška scores more

65%

level

19%

Dravograd scores more

17%

Rogaška at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Rogaška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

D. Rogina

36'

J. Koprivica← V. Gorza

46'

H. Muzaferović← M. Panadić

47'

H. Muzaferović

68'

N. Pečnik

77'

A. Močič← E. Hustić

77'

A. Pešl← M. Verstovšek

90'

D. Bevk← P. Kogelnik

90+2'

J. Račnik← N. Pečnik

90'

A. Pešl

Rogaška

Dravograd

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Romih

36'▲J. Koprivica←▼V. Gorza

46'▲H. Muzaferović←▼M. Panadić

77'▲A. Močič←▼E. Hustić

Rogaška substitutes

KoprivicaMuzaferovićMočičTorraStaričVoukBračko

Manager: B. Kus

77'▲A. Pešl←▼M. Verstovšek

90'▲D. Bevk←▼P. Kogelnik

90+2'▲J. Račnik←▼N. Pečnik

Dravograd substitutes

PešlBevkRačnikGluhovičBrzinSmrtnikKitek