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Rogaška vs Cirkulane — 3. SNL - East 2020

Rogaška
Rogaška
FT
1 – 0
Cirkulane
Cirkulane
9/5/20203. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 3Športni center Rogaška Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Rogaška43%
×Draw25%
Cirkulane32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogaška
1.55
Cirkulane
1.31

Rogaška creates 18% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rogaška
2.10
Cirkulane
1.88

allows per match

Rogaška
0.75
Cirkulane
1.00

finishing

Rogaška+0.00on par
Cirkulane+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogaška ↓

Cirkulane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rogaška or draw
68%
Rogaška or Cirkulane
75%
Draw or Cirkulane
57%

Winning margin

Rogaška wins by 2+
21%
Cirkulane wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rogaška 1+ goals
79%
Rogaška 2+ goals
46%
Rogaška 3+ goals
20%
Cirkulane 1+ goals
73%
Cirkulane 2+ goals
38%
Cirkulane 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rogaška (draw refunded)
57%
Cirkulane (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogaška at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Cirkulane away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogaška attack 2.10 + Cirkulane defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Cirkulane attack 1.88 + Rogaška defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rogaška scores more
43%
level
25%
Cirkulane scores more
32%

Rogaška at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rogaška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - East: Rogaška 1–0 Cirkulane

Rogaška beat Cirkulane 1-0 in 3. SNL - East on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Športni center Rogaška Slatina in Rogaška Slatina.