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Rogaška vs Brežice — 3. SNL - East 2020

Rogaška
Rogaška
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Brežice
Brežice
9/27/20253. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 7SD Rogaska Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rogaška50%
×Draw24%
Brežice26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogaška
1.72
Brežice
1.17

Rogaška creates 47% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

creates per match

Rogaška
2.10
Brežice
1.58

allows per match

Rogaška
0.75
Brežice
1.33

finishing

Rogaška+0.00on par
Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogaška ↓

Brežice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rogaška or draw
74%
Rogaška or Brežice
76%
Draw or Brežice
50%

Winning margin

Rogaška wins by 2+
27%
Brežice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rogaška 1+ goals
82%
Rogaška 2+ goals
51%
Rogaška 3+ goals
25%
Brežice 1+ goals
69%
Brežice 2+ goals
33%
Brežice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rogaška (draw refunded)
66%
Brežice (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogaška at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Brežice away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogaška attack 2.10 + Brežice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Brežice attack 1.58 + Rogaška defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rogaška scores more
50%
level
24%
Brežice scores more
26%

Rogaška at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rogaška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rogaška vs Brežice

Rogaška and Brežice drew 1-1 in 3. SNL - East on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at SD Rogaska Slatina in Rogaska Slatina.