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Rogaška vs Brda Dobrovo — 2. SNL 2019

Rogaška
Rogaška
CANC
00:00
Brda Dobrovo
Brda Dobrovo
3/21/20202. SNL2. SNL · Round 22Športni center Rogaška Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Rogaška59%
×Draw22%
Brda Dobrovo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogaška
1.97
Brda Dobrovo
1.04

Rogaška creates 89% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 23 away

creates per match

Rogaška
1.64
Brda Dobrovo
1.00

allows per match

Rogaška
1.08
Brda Dobrovo
2.30

finishing

Rogaška+0.00on par
Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogaška ↓

Brda Dobrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rogaška or draw
80%
Rogaška or Brda Dobrovo
78%
Draw or Brda Dobrovo
41%

Winning margin

Rogaška wins by 2+
35%
Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rogaška 1+ goals
86%
Rogaška 2+ goals
58%
Rogaška 3+ goals
31%
Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals
65%
Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals
28%
Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rogaška (draw refunded)
75%
Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogaška at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Brda Dobrovo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogaška attack 1.64 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.97

Brda Dobrovo attack 1.00 + Rogaška defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rogaška scores more
59%
level
22%
Brda Dobrovo scores more
20%

Rogaška at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rogaška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rogaška host Brda Dobrovo

March 21, 2020: Rogaška take on Brda Dobrovo in 2. SNL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rogaška host Brda Dobrovo at Športni center Rogaška Slatina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.