Rogaška 3–0 Bilje: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Rogaška

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bilje

A. Krajnc 83', 47'

S. Andjelić 64'

8/21/2021

2. SNL · Round 4Športni center Rogaška Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Rogaška51%

×Draw24%

Bilje25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RogaškaExpected goals in this matchBilje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.16

Rogaška

1.75

Bilje

1.16

Rogaška creates 51% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 95 away

1.64

creates per match

1.24

1.08

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Rogaška

1.64

Bilje

1.24

allows per match

Rogaška

1.08

Bilje

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rogaška+0.00on par

Bilje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogaška ↓

Bilje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rogaška or draw

75%

Rogaška or Bilje

76%

Draw or Bilje

49%

Winning margin

Rogaška wins by 2+

28%

Bilje wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rogaška 1+ goals

83%

Rogaška 2+ goals

52%

Rogaška 3+ goals

25%

Bilje 1+ goals

69%

Bilje 2+ goals

32%

Bilje 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rogaška (draw refunded)

67%

Bilje (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogaška at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Bilje away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogaška attack 1.64 + Bilje defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bilje attack 1.24 + Rogaška defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rogaška scores more

51%

level

24%

Bilje scores more

25%

Rogaška at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rogaška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. Andjelić← V. Sedej

47'

53'

57'

57'

63'

K. Basholli← V. Martinović

64'

S. Andjelić

70'

T. Gobec← H. Muzaferović

83'

A. Krajnc

86'

R. Lampreht← I. Ptiček

Rogaška

Bilje

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: F. Fridl

46'▲S. Andjelić←▼V. Sedej

70'▲T. Gobec←▼H. Muzaferović

86'▲R. Lampreht←▼I. Ptiček

Rogaška substitutes

AndjelićGobecLamprehtZdovcVunderlGolob

Manager: D. Beršnjak

53'▲M. Žižmond←▼K. Humar

57'▲M. Brešan←▼R. Erniša

57'▲Ž. Peršič←▼T. Židan

63'▲K. Basholli←▼V. Martinović

Bilje substitutes

ŽižmondBrešanPeršičBasholliRadikon