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Rodopa Smolyan vs Minyor Radnevo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
CANC
00:00
Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
3/22/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 22Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rodopa Smolyan46%
×Draw27%
Minyor Radnevo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodopa Smolyan
1.43
Minyor Radnevo
1.05

Rodopa Smolyan creates 36% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 27 away

creates per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.81
Minyor Radnevo
1.00

allows per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.10
Minyor Radnevo
1.04

finishing

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par
Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodopa Smolyan ↓

Minyor Radnevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rodopa Smolyan or draw
72%
Rodopa Smolyan or Minyor Radnevo
73%
Draw or Minyor Radnevo
54%

Winning margin

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
22%
Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
76%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
42%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
17%
Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
65%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
28%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
62%
Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodopa Smolyan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

Minyor Radnevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.81 + Minyor Radnevo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.43

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.00 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rodopa Smolyan scores more
46%
level
27%
Minyor Radnevo scores more
28%

Rodopa Smolyan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rodopa Smolyan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rodopa Smolyan host Minyor Radnevo

March 22, 2020: Rodopa Smolyan take on Minyor Radnevo in Third League - Southeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rodopa Smolyan host Minyor Radnevo at Stadion Septemvri.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.