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Rodopa Smolyan vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Karnobat
Karnobat
10/9/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 11Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Rodopa Smolyan66%
×Draw19%
Karnobat15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodopa Smolyan
2.20
Karnobat
0.95

Rodopa Smolyan creates 132% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 118 away

creates per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.81
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.10
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodopa Smolyan ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rodopa Smolyan or draw
85%
Rodopa Smolyan or Karnobat
81%
Draw or Karnobat
34%

Winning margin

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
42%
Karnobat wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
89%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
64%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
37%
Karnobat 1+ goals
61%
Karnobat 2+ goals
25%
Karnobat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
81%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodopa Smolyan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.81 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.20

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rodopa Smolyan scores more
66%
level
19%
Karnobat scores more
15%

Rodopa Smolyan at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rodopa Smolyan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodopa Smolyan vs Karnobat

Rodopa Smolyan beat Karnobat 5-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Smolian.