Rodopa Smolyan 1–2 FK Svilengrad: Result & Stats

Rodopa Smolyan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FK Svilengrad

11/2/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 15Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rodopa Smolyan58%

×Draw21%

FK Svilengrad21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodopa SmolyanExpected goals in this matchFK Svilengrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.19

Rodopa Smolyan

2.10

FK Svilengrad

1.19

Rodopa Smolyan creates 76% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 18 away

1.81

creates per match

1.28

1.10

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Rodopa Smolyan

1.81

FK Svilengrad

1.28

allows per match

Rodopa Smolyan

1.10

FK Svilengrad

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodopa Smolyan ↓

FK Svilengrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Rodopa Smolyan or draw

79%

Rodopa Smolyan or FK Svilengrad

79%

Draw or FK Svilengrad

42%

Winning margin

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+

35%

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals

88%

Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals

62%

Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals

35%

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals

70%

FK Svilengrad 2+ goals

33%

FK Svilengrad 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)

73%

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodopa Smolyan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

FK Svilengrad away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.81 + FK Svilengrad defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.10

FK Svilengrad attack 1.28 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rodopa Smolyan scores more

58%

level

21%

FK Svilengrad scores more

21%

Rodopa Smolyan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rodopa Smolyan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff