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Rodopa Smolyan vs FK Sliven — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
FT
5 – 0
FK Sliven
FK Sliven
6/3/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 38Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rodopa Smolyan75%
×Draw15%
FK Sliven11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodopa Smolyan
2.87
FK Sliven
1.02

Rodopa Smolyan creates 181% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 38 away

creates per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.81
FK Sliven
0.95

allows per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.10
FK Sliven
3.92

finishing

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par
FK Sliven+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodopa Smolyan ↓

FK Sliven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Rodopa Smolyan or draw
89%
Rodopa Smolyan or FK Sliven
85%
Draw or FK Sliven
25%

Winning margin

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
54%
FK Sliven wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
94%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
77%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
53%
FK Sliven 1+ goals
64%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
27%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
87%
FK Sliven (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodopa Smolyan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

FK Sliven away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.81 + FK Sliven defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 2.87

FK Sliven attack 0.95 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Rodopa Smolyan scores more
75%
level
15%
FK Sliven scores more
11%

Rodopa Smolyan at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Rodopa Smolyan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rodopa Smolyan 5 – 0 FK Sliven

Rodopa Smolyan beat FK Sliven 5-0 in Third League - Southeast on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Smolian.