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Rodina Moskva vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
9/11/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Stadion Yantar'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rodina Moskva46%
×Draw23%
Znamya Truda31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.79
Znamya Truda
1.42

Rodina Moskva creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 68 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
2.00
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
1.77
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
69%
Rodina Moskva or Znamya Truda
77%
Draw or Znamya Truda
54%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
25%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
83%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
53%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
26%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
76%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
41%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
60%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 2.00 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.79

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Rodina Moskva defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
46%
level
23%
Znamya Truda scores more
31%

Rodina Moskva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva vs Znamya Truda

Rodina Moskva and Znamya Truda drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Yantar' in Moskva.