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Rodina Moskva vs Zenit Irkutsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
CANC
10:00
Zenit Irkutsk
Zenit Irkutsk
10/29/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stadion Yantar'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rodina Moskva55%
×Draw22%
Zenit Irkutsk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.92
Zenit Irkutsk
1.14

Rodina Moskva creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
2.00
Zenit Irkutsk
0.50

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
1.77
Zenit Irkutsk
1.83

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Zenit Irkutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
78%
Rodina Moskva or Zenit Irkutsk
78%
Draw or Zenit Irkutsk
45%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
32%
Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
85%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
57%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
30%
Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals
68%
Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals
32%
Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
71%
Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Zenit Irkutsk away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 2.00 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Zenit Irkutsk attack 0.50 + Rodina Moskva defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
55%
level
22%
Zenit Irkutsk scores more
22%

Rodina Moskva at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rodina Moskva host Zenit Irkutsk

October 29, 2020: Rodina Moskva take on Zenit Irkutsk in Second League - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rodina Moskva host Zenit Irkutsk at Stadion Yantar'.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.