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Rodina Moskva vs Krasnodar 2 — First League 2018

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
9/4/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 8VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Rodina Moskva53%
×Draw25%
Krasnodar 222%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.56
Krasnodar 2
0.90

Rodina Moskva creates 73% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 91 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
1.53
Krasnodar 2
0.89

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
0.91
Krasnodar 2
1.58

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Krasnodar 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
78%
Rodina Moskva or Krasnodar 2
75%
Draw or Krasnodar 2
47%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
28%
Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
79%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
46%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
21%
Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
59%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
23%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
71%
Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.91 · 68 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 1.53 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Krasnodar 2 attack 0.89 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
53%
level
25%
Krasnodar 2 scores more
22%

Rodina Moskva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Rodina Moskva 1–2 Krasnodar 2

Krasnodar 2 beat Rodina Moskva 2-1 in First League on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.