Rodina Moskva 1–0 Khimki II: Result & Stats

Rodina Moskva

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Khimki II

D. Svintsov 86'

10/4/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rodina Moskva68%

×Draw18%

Khimki II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodina MoskvaExpected goals in this matchKhimki II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.08

Rodina Moskva

2.48

Khimki II

1.08

Rodina Moskva creates 130% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 74 away

3.13

creates per match

1.36

0.81

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Rodina Moskva

3.13

Khimki II

1.36

allows per match

Rodina Moskva

0.81

Khimki II

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Khimki II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw

85%

Rodina Moskva or Khimki II

82%

Draw or Khimki II

32%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+

45%

Khimki II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals

92%

Rodina Moskva 2+ goals

70%

Rodina Moskva 3+ goals

44%

Khimki II 1+ goals

66%

Khimki II 2+ goals

29%

Khimki II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)

82%

Khimki II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 3.13 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.48

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more

68%

level

18%

Khimki II scores more

15%

Rodina Moskva at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Y. Shlyonkin

45'

A. Hayrapetyan

46'

D. Svintsov← A. Hayrapetyan

46'

E. Shmarov← I. Trynko

64'

S. Dmitriev← I. Andreev

65'

A. Ponikarov

69'

K. Shekhov

73'

R. Polkovnikov← K. Shekhov

82'

86'

87'

89'

89'

D. Slobodyan← E. Shlenkin

90+3'

D. Tikhonov← A. Ponikarov

Rodina

Khimki

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Boyarintsev

46'▲D. Svintsov←▼A. Hayrapetyan

64'▲S. Dmitriev←▼I. Andreev

90+3'▲D. Tikhonov←▼A. Ponikarov

Rodina Moskva substitutes

SvintsovDmitrievTikhonov

Manager: I. Yushchenko

46'▲E. Shmarov←▼I. Trynko

73'▲R. Polkovnikov←▼K. Shekhov

89'▲D. Slobodyan←▼E. Shlenkin

Khimki II substitutes

ShmarovPolkovnikovSlobodyan

Second League - Group 3: Rodina Moskva 1–0 Khimki II

Rodina Moskva beat Khimki II 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 4, 2021.

Goals: D. Svintsov (86').

The match was played at Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina in Moskva.

Rodina Moskva vs Khimki II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 3: Rodina Moskva 1–0 Khimki II