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Rodina Moskva vs Kazanka — Second League - Group 2 2020

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kazanka
Kazanka
4/29/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Stadion Yantar'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rodina Moskva41%
×Draw24%
Kazanka35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.61
Kazanka
1.46

Rodina Moskva creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
2.00
Kazanka
1.16

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
1.77
Kazanka
1.23

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Kazanka+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Kazanka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
65%
Rodina Moskva or Kazanka
76%
Draw or Kazanka
59%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
21%
Kazanka wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
80%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
48%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
22%
Kazanka 1+ goals
77%
Kazanka 2+ goals
43%
Kazanka 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
54%
Kazanka (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Kazanka away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 2.00 + Kazanka defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kazanka attack 1.16 + Rodina Moskva defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
41%
level
24%
Kazanka scores more
35%

Rodina Moskva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Rodina Moskva 0–1 Kazanka

Kazanka beat Rodina Moskva 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on April 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Yantar' in Moskva.