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Rodina Moskva vs Fakel — First League 2018

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fakel
Fakel
9/15/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Rodina Moskva45%
×Draw27%
Fakel28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.42
Fakel
1.05

Rodina Moskva creates 35% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 89 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
1.53
Fakel
1.20

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
0.91
Fakel
1.31

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Fakel+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Fakel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
72%
Rodina Moskva or Fakel
73%
Draw or Fakel
55%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
22%
Fakel wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
76%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
41%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
17%
Fakel 1+ goals
65%
Fakel 2+ goals
28%
Fakel 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
62%
Fakel (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.91 · 68 matches

Fakel away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 1.53 + Fakel defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fakel attack 1.20 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
45%
level
27%
Fakel scores more
28%

Rodina Moskva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Rodina Moskva 2–0 Fakel

Rodina Moskva beat Fakel 2-0 in First League on September 15, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.