Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rodina Moskva vs Akron — First League 2018

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Akron
Akron
4/1/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Rodina Moskva46%
×Draw28%
Akron26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.35
Akron
0.94

Rodina Moskva creates 44% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 74 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
1.53
Akron
0.97

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
0.91
Akron
1.18

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
74%
Rodina Moskva or Akron
72%
Draw or Akron
54%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
22%
Akron wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
74%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
39%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
15%
Akron 1+ goals
61%
Akron 2+ goals
24%
Akron 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
64%
Akron (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.91 · 68 matches

Akron away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 1.53 + Akron defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Akron attack 0.97 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
46%
level
28%
Akron scores more
26%

Rodina Moskva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Rodina Moskva 1–3 Akron

Akron beat Rodina Moskva 3-1 in First League on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.