Rodina Moskva III 1–2 Znamya Truda: Result & Stats

Rodina Moskva III

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Znamya Truda

8/26/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rodina Moskva III40%

×Draw28%

Znamya Truda32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodina Moskva IIIExpected goals in this matchZnamya Truda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.11

Rodina Moskva III

1.27

Znamya Truda

1.11

Rodina Moskva III creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 68 away

0.95

creates per match

1.07

1.16

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Rodina Moskva III

0.95

Znamya Truda

1.07

allows per match

Rodina Moskva III

1.16

Znamya Truda

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodina Moskva III+0.00on par

Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva III ↓

Znamya Truda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva III or draw

68%

Rodina Moskva III or Znamya Truda

72%

Draw or Znamya Truda

60%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva III wins by 2+

18%

Znamya Truda wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva III 1+ goals

72%

Rodina Moskva III 2+ goals

36%

Rodina Moskva III 3+ goals

14%

Znamya Truda 1+ goals

67%

Znamya Truda 2+ goals

30%

Znamya Truda 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva III (draw refunded)

55%

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva III at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva III attack 0.95 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Rodina Moskva III defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rodina Moskva III scores more

40%

level

28%

Znamya Truda scores more

32%

Rodina Moskva III at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rodina Moskva III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff