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Rodina Moskva III vs Khimki II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Rodina Moskva III
Rodina Moskva III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khimki II
Khimki II
4/11/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Rodina Moskva III44%
×Draw24%
Khimki II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva III
1.65
Khimki II
1.38

Rodina Moskva III creates 20% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 74 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva III
1.48
Khimki II
1.36

allows per match

Rodina Moskva III
1.39
Khimki II
1.82

finishing

Rodina Moskva III+0.00on par
Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva III ↓

Khimki II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva III or draw
68%
Rodina Moskva III or Khimki II
76%
Draw or Khimki II
56%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva III wins by 2+
23%
Khimki II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva III 1+ goals
81%
Rodina Moskva III 2+ goals
49%
Rodina Moskva III 3+ goals
23%
Khimki II 1+ goals
75%
Khimki II 2+ goals
40%
Khimki II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva III (draw refunded)
58%
Khimki II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva III at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva III attack 1.48 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Rodina Moskva III defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rodina Moskva III scores more
44%
level
24%
Khimki II scores more
32%

Rodina Moskva III at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rodina Moskva III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Rodina Moskva III 1–0 Khimki II

Rodina Moskva III beat Khimki II 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Rodina in Khimki.