Rodina Moskva III 1–1 Dinamo Vologda

Rodina Moskva III

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Vologda

11/12/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rodina Moskva III36%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Vologda36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodina Moskva IIIExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vologda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.15

Rodina Moskva III

1.14

Dinamo Vologda

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 60 away

0.95

creates per match

1.13

1.16

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Rodina Moskva III

0.95

Dinamo Vologda

1.13

allows per match

Rodina Moskva III

1.16

Dinamo Vologda

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodina Moskva III+0.00on par

Dinamo Vologda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva III ↓

Dinamo Vologda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva III or draw

64%

Rodina Moskva III or Dinamo Vologda

72%

Draw or Dinamo Vologda

64%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva III wins by 2+

15%

Dinamo Vologda wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva III 1+ goals

68%

Rodina Moskva III 2+ goals

32%

Rodina Moskva III 3+ goals

11%

Dinamo Vologda 1+ goals

68%

Dinamo Vologda 2+ goals

32%

Dinamo Vologda 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva III (draw refunded)

50%

Dinamo Vologda (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva III at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

Dinamo Vologda away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva III attack 0.95 + Dinamo Vologda defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Dinamo Vologda attack 1.13 + Rodina Moskva III defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rodina Moskva III scores more

36%

level

28%

Dinamo Vologda scores more

36%

Rodina Moskva III at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rodina Moskva III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff