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Rodina Moskva III vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Rodina Moskva III
Rodina Moskva III
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
5/18/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rodina Moskva III36%
×Draw28%
Baltika BFU37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva III
1.19
Baltika BFU
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 53 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva III
0.95
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Rodina Moskva III
1.16
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Rodina Moskva III+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva III ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva III or draw
63%
Rodina Moskva III or Baltika BFU
72%
Draw or Baltika BFU
64%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva III wins by 2+
15%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva III 1+ goals
70%
Rodina Moskva III 2+ goals
33%
Rodina Moskva III 3+ goals
12%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
70%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
34%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva III (draw refunded)
49%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva III at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva III attack 0.95 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Rodina Moskva III defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rodina Moskva III scores more
36%
level
28%
Baltika BFU scores more
37%

Baltika BFU at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Baltika BFU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Rodina Moskva III 2–0 Baltika BFU

Rodina Moskva III beat Baltika BFU 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Rodina in Khimki.