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Rodina Moskva II vs Urozhay — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Urozhay
Urozhay
7/26/2025Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 2Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rodina Moskva II57%
×Draw24%
Urozhay19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva II
1.73
Urozhay
0.88

Rodina Moskva II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.72
Urozhay
1.07

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II
0.68
Urozhay
1.73

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par
Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Urozhay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw
81%
Rodina Moskva II or Urozhay
76%
Draw or Urozhay
43%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
32%
Urozhay wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
82%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
52%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
25%
Urozhay 1+ goals
59%
Urozhay 2+ goals
22%
Urozhay 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
75%
Urozhay (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Urozhay away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.72 + Urozhay defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Urozhay attack 1.07 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more
57%
level
24%
Urozhay scores more
19%

Rodina Moskva II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva II vs Urozhay

Rodina Moskva II beat Urozhay 3-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on July 26, 2025.

The match was played at Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina in Moscow.