Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rodez vs Reims — Ligue 2 2018

Rodez
Rodez
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Reims
Reims
I. Balde 86'
O. Joly 20'
A. Tia 54'
K. Nakamura 45'
10/17/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Paul-Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rodez33%
×Draw27%
Reims40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodez
1.18
Reims
1.34

Reims creates 14% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 27 away

creates per match

Rodez
1.31
Reims
1.52

allows per match

Rodez
1.17
Reims
1.04

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rodez or draw
60%
Rodez or Reims
73%
Draw or Reims
67%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+
14%
Reims wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals
69%
Rodez 2+ goals
33%
Rodez 3+ goals
12%
Reims 1+ goals
74%
Reims 2+ goals
39%
Reims 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)
45%
Reims (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

Reims away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.31 + Reims defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Reims attack 1.52 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rodez scores more
33%
level
27%
Reims scores more
40%

Reims at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
O. JolyRodezRodez · M
7.9

Match Events

13'
Samy Benchama
20'
O. Joly↳ N. Galves
45'
K. Nakamura↳ T. Teuma
46'
H. Ibrahim← N. Bassette
54'
A. Tia
64'
Abdoul Kone
70'
M. Tourraine← N. Galves
70'
W. Younoussa← O. Joly
70'
Y. Demoncy← A. Tia
70'
Zabi← T. Teuma
72'
Yohan Demoncy
76'
Sergio Akieme
85'
M. Baaloudj← T. Arconte
85'
I. Balde← K. Nagera
86'
I. Balde↳ S. Benchamma
90+4'
Mathys Tourraine
90+4'
Zabi
90'
R. Ponti← S. Benchamma

Possession

33%Rodez

Shots

13Rodez

Pass accuracy

47%Rodez

Statistics

RodezReims
Overview
33%Possession67%
13Total Shots13
2Corners10
13Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots13
3On Target5
6Off Target6
4Blocked2
7Inside Box11
6Outside Box2
Passing
33%Possession67%
269Total Passes557
198Accurate Passes472
74%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Rodez 2 – 2 Reims

Rodez and Reims drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on October 17, 2025.

Goals: O. Joly (20'), K. Nakamura (45'), A. Tia (54'), I. Balde (86').

Reims controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade Paul-Lignon in Rodez.