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Rodez vs Quevilly — Ligue 2 2018

Rodez
Rodez
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Quevilly
Quevilly
4/6/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 31Stade Paul Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Rodez42%
×Draw27%
Quevilly31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodez
1.36
Quevilly
1.14

Rodez creates 19% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 58 away

creates per match

Rodez
1.32
Quevilly
1.10

allows per match

Rodez
1.17
Quevilly
1.41

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par
Quevilly+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Quevilly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rodez or draw
69%
Rodez or Quevilly
73%
Draw or Quevilly
58%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+
19%
Quevilly wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals
74%
Rodez 2+ goals
39%
Rodez 3+ goals
16%
Quevilly 1+ goals
68%
Quevilly 2+ goals
32%
Quevilly 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)
57%
Quevilly (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 124 matches

Quevilly away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.32 + Quevilly defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Quevilly attack 1.10 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rodez scores more
42%
level
27%
Quevilly scores more
31%

Rodez at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Rodez 3–3 Quevilly

Rodez and Quevilly drew 3-3 in Ligue 2 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Paul Lignon in Rodez.